Journal - Volume 3

FAMILYPLATFORM ONLINE JOURNAL VOLUME 3: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE FAMILY IN EUROPE

Contents

1.    DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND CHALLENGES IN EUROPE - An Interview with Paul Demeny (Population Council)

2.    DO BABIES MAKE A COME-BACK? - Interview with Professor Herwig Birg (University of Bielefeld)

3.    FAMILY CHANGES IN THE NEW EU MEMBER STATES - Zsolt Spéder (Demographic Research Institute, Hungary)

4.    CHILD-BEARING IN A GENDER EQUAL SOCIETY - An Interview with Livia Sz. Oláh (Stockholm University)

5.    “TO BE OR NOT TO BE AND HOW TO FILL EMPTY CRADLES?” THAT IS THE QUESTION - Zsuzsanna Kormosné-Debreceni (National Association of Large Families, Hungary)

EDITORIAL

We live in a rapidly changing society. Marriages and families are splitting up and new ones are forming. Forms of family life have changed and diversified over the last decades; alternative family structures and partnerships have become increasingly commonplace. Europe’s youth has a broader choice of acceptable family structures nowadays than their grandparents did. There is a trend towards family formation at later ages: studies show considerable postponement of first childbirth and first marriage since the 1970s in all European countries. Low propensities to marry are accompanied by the increasing instability of partnerships. Consequently, the number of children growing up in married-couple families has declined; single, step- or same-sex parents are no longer exceptional.

Gender roles have become less stereotyped and rigid. The rights and status of women have greatly improved during the last one hundred years. Access to education and training has increased for girls at all levels. Over the last few decades, women have gained access to managerial and other highly paid jobs long reserved for men. Parallel to the emergence of women in the labour market, men’s choices, both at work and in the family, have also widened. Today’s fathers play a more active and hands-on role in their children's and families’ lives, although the division between breadwinner and carer roles still exists, and acts as a constraint that limits the choices of men and women.

One of the major changes of this century is that women have fewer children, and later in the life-course, if at all. Having children has become a more conscious decision, amongst others due to the availability of effective contraceptive methods. ‘Child-freeness’ is often a chosen lifestyle, both by married and cohabiting couples. Fertility rates have declined below replacement rate of 2.1 children per women in every European country. At the same time, we are witnessing the "greying" of Europe: with rising life expectancy and declining birth rates, the age pyramid is turning into a mushroom.

According to the 2008 revision of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, the population of the 47 countries which make up Europe (according to the UN definition) is expected to decline slightly, passing from 732 million in 2009 to 691 million in 2050. Projections show significant changes in the distribution of the population of Europe by age group. While the number of people aged 60 to 80 will increase by 46 per cent, the number of the oldest old will double in the next 50 years. The age group of people over 60 years will account for 44 per cent of the European population in 2050. On the contrary, the number of young people aged 15 to 24 and the number of people in the main working ages (aged 25 to 59) will decrease (from 459 million in 2010 to 351 million in 2050) together with the number of children under age 15, which will decrease from 113 to 104 million. The implications of population ageing, mainly resulting from declining fertility, cannot be dismissed. According to United Nations population estimates, in the medium variant, fertility remains at 1.5 children per woman in 2045-2050, which is significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Increasing longevity also contributes to population ageing. Life expectancy at birth is estimated to rise from 75.1 years in 2005-2010 to 81.5 years in 2045-2050 in Europe. Besides fertility (births) and mortality (deaths), net migration is the third driver of population change in the European Union. In 2005-2010, net migration exceeded or totally counterbalanced the excess of deaths over births in several European countries. However, the effects of immigration on population decline and demographic ageing is limited.

Demographic change poses significant challenges to society, policy makers, individuals and their families. The growing imbalance between the generations undermines the long-term financial sustainability of social systems. Is it possible to halt demographic ageing? Are incentives to increase fertility rates the answer? How far can immigration contribute to the rejuvenation of Europe’s population? Then again, what do citizens want, what are people’s attitudes and expectations regarding these issues?

This third volume of the FAMILYPLATFORM Online Journal focuses on recent demographic developments and their implications for families in Europe.

In the first interview, Paul Demeny (Distinguished Scholar at the Population Council since 1989 and founder of the East-West Population Institute in Honolulu) discusses key facets of twentieth-century demographic developments in Europe, and raises some concerns about current discussions on the demographic future of Europe. One of the major topics discussed is the effectiveness of public policies enacted to solve problems arising from demographic changes.

In the second interview, Professor Herwig Birg (Professor Emeritus for Demographics and long-time Director of the Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (Institute for Population Research and Social Politics) at the University of Bielefeld and author of the book “World population projections for the 21st century - Theoretical Interpretations and quantitative simulations” (Birg, 1995)) gives his views on recent demographic trends in Europe with a focus on Germany, a country with a tradition of high welfare outlays and low fertility rates. Professor Birg talks about future population and society developments in Germany, and gives some recommendations on how to manage the challenges facing policy makers and families rising from demographic changes.

The two interviews are followed by an article by Zsolt Spéder (Director at the Demographic Research Institute, Hungary) He concentrates on family changes in the new EU member states and addresses two main topics concerning the family life: firstly, recent changes in partnership formation in the new member countries are discussed, with a focus on the interrelation between non-marital and marital cohabitation; secondly, changes in the development of fertility behaviour in the region, highlighting some of the complex issues involved.

A number of recent studies have emphasised the importance of gender equality for fertility development. In the proceeding interview, Livia Sz. Oláh (Associate Professor in Demography at the Stockholm University) brings us to Sweden, a country where family policies have been influenced by gender equality for decades and have made it easier for women to combine work and family life. She talks about the interrelations between female labour-market attachment, policy context and fertility decisions, and underlines the complexity of mechanisms which govern the interplay between gender relations, the institutional context and individual/couple making decision about childbearing.

The journal ends with the thoughts of Zsuzsanna Kormosné-Debreceni (Social Policy Officer at the National Association of Large Families in Hungary, Vice-President of the European network FEFAF (Fédération Européenne de Femmes Actives au Foyer)) and mother of five children, who emphasises the importance of having real choices and options, both for women and men. As a representative of a large family organisation, she discusses the challenges of reconciling work, family and private life in work in Hungary and shows how initiatives of a local NGO can support the wellbeing of families.

It is very difficult to cover the broad array of subjects and contradictory views of demographic changes in Europe in the few pages available in this volume of the FAMILYPLATFORM Online Journal. But we still hope that the points of views of academic experts supplemented by the testimony of a representative of a family association help us to comprehend with greater clarity and understanding the trends and processes behind which lie the changing faces of European families and we very much welcome your feedback either by email or via the relevant page on the FAMILYPLATFORM website.

Veronika Herche
Editor of FAMILYPLATFORM Online Journal Volume 3
Demographic Research Institute, Hungary

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